Conservatives and even some DLC types continue to ignore the fact that our current gap in demand will continue to prevent our economy from accelerating faster than it is now. The middle class is squeezed. Working paycheck to paycheck, families do not have money to spend and invest. Income inequality is a huge issue this election year, as it should be. Until the middle class has a higher share of America's relative wealth, demand will remain lackluster.
William Galston of the Brookings Institution explained why the economic recovery won't continue without growth in demand, and what that will mean for Obama in November:
The Federal Reserve Board, OECD, and the World Bank all predict slowing global growth, which is bound to dampen an export-led recovery in the United States. And the fourth quarter report issued on January 27 wasn’t exactly a blockbuster. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent (a bit below expectations), but final demand rose by only 0.9 percent while inventories swelled. Consumer spending outpaced growth in disposable income, meaning that households spent more only by saving less. This can’t continue indefinitely: Over the past year, real actual tax incomes actually fell by 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, business investment grew at the slowest pace in two years. And as the Fed recently noted, the modest growth predicted for 2012 would not be enough to reduce unemployment significantly from current levels.
The Obama campaign would like to frame the 2012 election as a choice between two visions for the country. It’s not hard to see why. If the election is a referendum on the economy rather than a choice between candidates and ideologies, the evidence suggests that it would be a tough, hard-fought race decided by a margin narrower than the one Obama received in 2008. It also suggests that if the economy underperforms over the next three quarters, the incumbent could end up on the losing side.
The Obama Administration's strong emphasis on an export-driven recovery is a smart policy. Under Bush, we were importing way too much in relation to exports.
But exports alone won't fix the economy. Exports represent demand abroad. They do create jobs at home, but only to an extent. What happens with non-Americans economies slow? We must increase demand at home. It starts by increasing the middle class' share of wealth, as opposed to having a tax code that benefits rich people who are more likely to save and invest money abroad.