Poll: 61% disapprove of Bush immigration policy, and conservatives get nervous

Heading into the big speech tonight, Americans on both sides of the political spectrum are somewhat skeptical about the President's immigration policy, as illustrated by this latest Newsweek Poll:

 

Meanwhile, pro-amnesty groups are collaborating together, and will respond to the President's speech with one unified voice, says the Washington Post:

The We Are America Alliance of 41 immigrant resource groups, unions, churches, day laborers and Spanish-language disc jockeys opposes House legislation that would criminalize illegal immigrants, but it will lobby Congress and compromise to realize its goal of obtaining legal residency for many of the 11 million people who live in the shadows.

The way I see it, this is a lose-lose speech for the President.  He has a unique opportunity to offend both sides of the political spectrum.  The immigration groups above are ready to respond together against the President if he shifts to the right.  But then on the conservative side, there are many groups that will not forgive the President if he favors something along the lines of the McCain-Kennedy bill, which would give illegal immigrants a path to citizenship.  The President will offend somebody!

Red State, the conservative equivalent of this web site, voiced skepticism about Bush's speech and warned the conservative base not to expect much good out of it:

You see, that's the sole purpose of this speech.  It's not about getting tough on border enforcement, the end goal of this, and any other action Bush takes towards the border, is, and always has been, amnesty and open borders. 

If he was serious about securing the border, and he's willing to go so far as to deploy National Guard troops, then why not start building some serious fencing?

This sense of nervousness within the GOP base will spell trouble this November.  Tonight could be a breaking point for Mr. Bush that helps push his party over the edge of a cliff.  A column in Monday's San Francisco Chronicle outlines the challenge for Republicans.