Rice and Cheney at war

The latest offer by the Bush Administration to engage in direct negotiations with Iran represents an unprecedented policy change since the 9/11 attacks.  The change has Condoleezza Rice's diplomacy style written all over it.  Steve Clemons of The Washington Note blog notes that a feud is breaking out inside the Administration: Condoleezza Rice is on one side, and both Dick Cheney and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Josh Bolton are on the other.

Clemons was told by a source that Bolton is furious about Rice's comments about Iran.  Cheney, who was mainly responsible for Bush's nomination of Bolton in the first place, might help his U.N. friend work to undercut Rice.  As Clemons explains, President Bush is still teetering between Rice and Cheney/Bolton:

Rice not only has to manage the Iranian response to her initiative but has to manage Vice President Cheney's team -- including John Bolton -- who will try to undermine her at every step.

The President had to sign off on this initiative, but what is not clear is whether he is going to give his complete support to Rice or whether he is going to sit on a perch while his closest advisors slash each other over this.

But Bush had every reason to side with Rice.  The Secretary of State's diplomatic move helped her boss in two ways. 

1. It made Pakistan happy.  Why is that important?  The United States just completed a $370 million missile deal with Pakistan.  This new strategy change in dealing with Iran might have been one of the sticking points for Pervez Musharraf if the transaction was to be completed.  Ultimately, the deal was completed earlier week, the same time as the policy change on Iran.
2. The stock market went up and oil prices went down as a result.  For all you political conspiracy theorists out there who think Bush will attack Iran right before the November election, it won't happen.  Whatever happens with Iran affects oil prices.  A war with Iran would cause an immediate gas shock, and the public would revolt by overwhelmingly voting to kick the GOP out of Congress.  So as far as oil prices are concerned, Bush needs things to go well with Iran.  Therefore, lawmakers up for reelection are probably thanking Rice and Bush for the Iran policy change.

Still, Rice's policy change contradicts the Cheney doctrine of dealing with rogue states.  Because Cheney does not like being upstaged, a battle is brewing inside Bush's war cabinet.

And late last night, Rice's tactic paid off.  Europe and the U.S. have agreed on a solution to solve the Iran problem.  Whether it works or not is another question.  At least it is a step in the right direction (even though it's not the far right-wing direction, like what Cheney wants).

See, diplomacy does work!