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2006.10.30

Al Qaeda: the real October surprise

There is significant chatter within the intelligence community that suggests the terrorist organization Al Qaeda will try to impact the upcoming midterm election, whether by delivering video threats or launching terrorist attacks, according to Newsweek sources:

A senior counterterrorism official, anonymous, like other officials NEWSWEEK spoke to, because the subject is sensitive, says that based on previous patterns—such as the release of a rare bin Laden tape just before the 2004 presidential vote—a message before Election Day wouldn't be surprising. Private expert Evan Kohlmann, who consults for the Feds on terror probes, says Al Qaeda has lately released tapes at a rate of two or three per month. This month, he says, they are "short by one or two," so he thinks a pre-election message is a "very good likelihood." Another U.S. official says intel experts believe Al Qaeda wants to be "relevant" to the U.S. political process.

...Overseas, the threat is more ominous: reports of a possible attack on Saudi oil installations (which could raise U.S. gas prices). The perpetrators would probably be Saudi Qaeda affiliates; methods could include truck or boat bombs. U.S. agencies are not certain of the threat's credibility, an official said.

I am among the school of thought that thinks that the only way we can lose the war against terrorism is if we let the terrorists scare us into changing our democratically elected representative system that is held together by the rule of law.  In other words, it isn't what they do to us that can destroy the very fabric of our way of life, it is what we do to ourselves out of fear that causes us to crumble from within.

Al Qaeda is aware of this, and therefore sees every incentive to cause a problem right before our election.  They know that any video message or terrorist attack within the coming week would be used by the Bush Administration for political gain via fear-mongering.   Voters beware!

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