The Blue State 2006 U.S. House Projection

In Brief: The Democrats will pick up no fewer than 14 U.S. House seats this November.

After a thorough analysis of nearly 100 House races, we can conclude that there are 64 House seats -- 59 Republican and 5 Democrat -- that have at least an outside chance of switching hands on election night.  Thanks to a diverse collection of polling data and recent political trends, these 64 races can be grouped into one of three categories: "Definite Dem Win", "Potential Dem Win" and "Long-shot Dem Win."

Following this objective, careful and consistent analysis by The Blue State of every contested U.S. House race, the following conclusions have been reached (keep in mind that the Democrats need 15 House seat pick-ups to capture majority):

• The Democrats will "definitely" pick up 14 House seats
• The Democrats can "possibly" pick up as many as 45 House seats
• The Democrats have a "long-shot" of picking up as many as 59 House seats

Each of the races are included below.

Definite Dem Wins = If the Democratic candidate is winning comfortably or is consistently outside the margin of error in all polling data within the last month (color designates which party currently controls seat):

AZ-08, FL-13, FL-16, GA-08, GA-12, IL-08, IN-02, IN-08, IA-03, NM-01, NY-24, NY-25, NY-29, NC-11, OH-18, PA-07, PA-10, TX-22, WV-01.

Possible Dem Wins = If the Democratic candidate is within the margin of error or is behind but closing in fast on the opponent (color designates which party currently controls seat):

AZ-05, CA-11, CA-50, CO-07, CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, FL-22, FL-24, IL-06, IN-07, IN-09, IA-02, KY-03, KY-04, MN-01, MN-06, NV-02, NH-02, NY-03, NY-19, NY-20, NY-26, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, PA-06, PA-08, VA-02, WA-08, WI-08.

Long-Shot Dem Wins = If the Democratic candidate has consistently been behind and outside the margin of error, but still can make up the ground in one week (color designates which party currently controls seat):

AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, ID-01, IL-10, IA-01, MN-02, NV-03, NJ-07, NC-08, PA-04, VA-10, WA-05, WY-At Large.

Therefore, we come up with the totals (Democrats need 15 pick-ups to take majority):

• Definite = 14 seat gain
• Definite + Possible = 45 seat gain
• Definite + Possible + Long-shot = 59 seat gain

Barring an unforeseen national event, the Democrats are in a great position to win back majority.  These projections prove that even a low Democratic turnout would allow them to possibly capture the House by a very slim margin.  If there is a high Democratic base turnout, then the Democrats will have a large majority heading into the new Congress in January.  If there is a high Democratic turnout coupled with a deflated turnout among culturally conservative voters, then expect a landslide in the Democrats' favor.

You can view the PDF of the chart that I made here, which shows the match-ups in each contested House race followed by the conclusions that I drew from each one.

Comments

[laura]

Nice Work!

[goodonpaper]

NE-03 is a possible dem pickup. No polling data, but the conservative newspapers all over the state have been endorsing Scott Kleeb, the democrat. This is the seat that republican Tom Osborne is vacating.