Edwards is still the guy to beat in Iowa

As much media attention as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are getting, that still can't stop the fact that John Edwards is the favorite among Democratic-leaning Iowans.  In a poll conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, John Edwards is destroying everyone else in Iowa:

Harstad Strategic Research

John Edwards - 36%
Hillary Clinton - 16%
Barack Obama - 13%
Tom Vilsack - 9%

I bet you are all wondering where this is coming from?  Ever since January of 2005, John and Elizabeth Edwards have spent more time  in Iowa than any other '08 candidate, of course with the exception of Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack .  The trick is to do events for local politicians so that they owe you something later on.  Having connections in all 99 of Iowa's counties is very important.  Also, Edwards has a very solid labor following.

Edwards' advantage is not just confined to Iowa.  Look for the former North Carolina Senator to also have a strong following in Nevada.  This year, Edwards has spent a lot of time trying to get the support of the Hotel Workers Union.  He also campaigned with U.S. Senate candidate Jack Carter, and a number of other local politicians.

John Edwards' weakness is New Hampshire.  But he won't give that state up completely.  Remember, the Democratic nomination is based on the total number of delegates that are won.  So while Edwards will almost surely lose New Hampshire, even a third place finish there would win him a ton of delegates, adding significantly to his total heading into South Carolina the very next week -- a state that he won in February of 2004.  If the primary schedule suits anyone, it is John Edwards.  If he can win one or two contests before the South Carolina primary, then look out -- the momentum might make him the Democratic nominee.

Then again, Edwards does not have the media attention that Clinton, Obama or Gore have.  He also cannot raise money as easily as the three.  In the end, Edwards will have to hope that local connections trump the importance of media attention and star power.

Comments

[mbair]

Did you see him on Charlie Rose?
CR: Since 2004, you've been to Iowa how many times?
JE: A lot, both start laughing
CR: NH?
JE: Also a lot
CR: SC?
JE: Charlie I know these places like the back on my hand.

Video: Charlie Rose - John Edwards / Jeremy Greenstock

I think Edwards is running a grassroots campaign at least in IA. He's smart since he's up against an heir apparent in Clinton that's the only way to go. Deval Patrick just did this in MA for the governor's race.

In the last cycle, Hillary gave 7.5 million, the most of any Dem, to lower tier candidates largely through her PAC by writing a check. Edwards on the other hand raised 6.5 million, but not through his PAC, his PAC is broke. Instead of fundraising himself and cutting a check he chose to go out in attend fundraisers in the candidate districts themselves. That was smart, he showed up on his own dime and without his hand out.