Weekly '08 Roundup: Clinton to run, says Congressman

As I do each week, here are the odds that each potential candidate has in terms of winning the Democratic nomination.

It's almost set in stone that Hillary Clinton will run for President.  During a conversation with Congressman Joseph Crowley, Clinton left no doubt in Crowley's mind that she would be running:

"I don't think she ever outright said it, but there's no doubt in my mind that she's going to run," said Rep. Joseph Crowley, who spoke with Clinton on Monday. "It was a very exciting and exhilarating conversation. I don't know how often it happens in a lifetime when someone calls you up and says, 'I want you to know I'm doing this and I want your support.'"

This news could not have come at a worse time for Evan Bayh and Tom Vilsack.  The two figured that by announcing their candidacies early that they could grab the media attention from Democratic superstars like Hillary, Obama and Edwards.  They were wrong.  Hillary has been in the news these last two weeks, completely overshadowing Vilsack and Bayh.

Although the news about Hillary is huge, she has been unable to suppress the buzz about Obama.  Appearing on the Tonight Show on Friday, Obama wowed the audience with a story about his rise from the political garbage can to political fame between 2000 and 2004.  That even caused Kevin McCullough, a far-right conservative over at Townhall.com, to predict that the Illinois would go on to win the presidency:

Barring several series of near seizure-like corrections, Barack Obama will take the Presidential oath of office in January of 2009. It will be a cold January morning, his beautiful wife and daughters will be by his side and they will shiver as he places his hand on the Bible and swears to uphold the Constitution of the United States . His presidency that will follow, if reflective of anything at all of his legislative record, will then seek to dismantle that same Constitution.

There is little doubt that conservatives are afraid of him -- and they should be.  He was against the Iraq war as early as 2002, before it was popular to hold that position.

Knowing that Hillary and Obama are the two front-runners, Al Gore is making some news by deciding to appear on the Oprah Winfrey Show.  Over the weekend, Gore and Winfrey taped a segment together.  The show is a great outlet to the female voting demographic, as Obama found out a few months ago when he promoted his new book.  Maybe Gore is interested in running as well.

As I do each week, I will rank each of the potential 2008 candidates in terms of their probability of capturing the nomination, assuming each will enter the race:

1. Hillary Clinton - 24%
2. Barack Obama - 19%
3. John Edwards - 18%
4. Al Gore - 17%
5. Evan Bayh - 6%
6. Wesley Clark - 5%
7. Bill Richardson - 3%
8. Joe Biden - 4%
9. Tom Vilsack - 2%
10. John Kerry - 1%
11. Chris Dodd - 1%

As you can see by comparing this to last week's odds, Evan Bayh definitely helped himself out, while Vilsack's nomination fell under deaf ears.  Obama, Edwards and Gore all moved up, distancing themselves from the rest of the pack.  The biggest shift was Obama's over-taking of Edwards.  The Friday appearance on Leno really raised the popularity of the Illinois Senator, and helped brand him as a humble American reformer.  While Edwards fell to #3, he still is helping himself out by his book tour.  Large crowds have been showing up everywhere in the country that he has gone, giving him more of a reason to run.  For Al Gore, he will always have energy independence and the growing threat of global warming as something that makes him an attractive candidate.

I'll update the odds next week.

Comments

[Michel]

Out of curiosity, is there any science behind these numbers? :)

[Michel]

Aw nuts. Todd, you have any admin power to remove the post above with my last name and this one saying to do so? I prefer to remain semi-anonymous, but my firefox had autocomplete on and filled my info that I use on another blog.

[PS]

Yeah, I don't know about Obama. He's just so... polished. It all seems like an act to me. Like he's runing for PResident not because he really cares about the country or has some great ideas for it but because he's controlled by ambition. I think he will implode. I don't thin khe stands a prayer at winning the general election against a McCain or Giuliani. Right now I think Evan Bayh is actually the sleeping lion. The Midwesternsers love him.

[Administrator: Todd]

No problem Michel, it has just been removed.

[Administrator: Todd]

Just so you know, these rankings have nothing to do with my personal opinion of who I want to be the nominee. I don't even have a favorite yet.

These are based on their favorability rating, fundraising potential, and appeal in early primary states. Think of it as a BCS rating (except better than that!)

[Michel]

Well let's see:
* Favorability: easily quantifiable.
* Appeal in early states: more subjective, but still quantifiable (though what states have what weights in the calculation could help).
* Fundraising potential: ...how does this quantify into a percentage?

I can respect these numbers no matter how much BS is put into them, but I am interested in knowing how you come to them so that I can give them a certain weight in my curiosity compared to other data I find around.

When I see everyone except for Hillary is about 1% point off of someone else, I think, that kind of precision is nice, but what does that mean if the margin of error is huge?