New Hampshire Poll: Hillary leads, Obama attracts more non-Democrats

I enjoy reading SurveyUSA polls more than any other because of how they break voters down into the most specific groups.  On Monday night, SurveyUSA released a poll taken by voters in New Hampshire that said they will likely to take part in the Democratic primary next January.  It asked them point-blank: Clinton, Obama, Edwards or someone else?  Putting it simply, Clinton has a commanding lead.  But when you break the poll down into key social categories, you find which Democratic voters like which candidates.  I will do my best to break this poll down for you all.

Overall, among likely Democratic primary voters, here are the results:

New Hampshire
Hillary Clinton - 40%
Barack Obama - 25%
John Edwards - 23%
Other Democrat - 9%
Undecided - 3%

You might be thinking, "This race is over."  But it's not.

Age-wise, Hillary carries every single age group.  Obama is strongest among the 18 - 34 crowd, while Edwards is strongest among baby-boomers. 

The Illinois Senator closes the gap among men, narrowly losing to Hillary by a 35% to 29% margin.

As far as ideology, this one is interesting.  The "conservative" Democrats sure like Hillary:

New Hampshire "Conservative" Democratic Voters
Hillary Clinton - 56%
John Edwards - 19%
Barack Obama - 18%

Clearly though, there is one key demographic that likes Hillary Clinton much less: independents:

New Hampshire "Independents"
Hillary Clinton - 33%
Barack Obama - 32%
John Edwards - 21%

Among people that voted for Bush in 2004, Obama bests Hillary:

New Hampshire '04 Bush Supporters
Barack Obama - 35%
Hillary Clinton - 30%
John Edwards - 21%

Obama also beats Hillary among those who did not vote in 2004:

New Hampshire '04 Non-Voters
Barack Obama - 46%
Hillary Clinton - 37%
John Edwards - 17%

While John Edwards does not win over any category, he does come close among Democratic voters that oppose marijuana for medical purposes:

New Hampshire Primary Voters that Oppose Medical Marijuana
Hillary Clinton - 38%
John Edwards - 34%
Barack Obama - 21%

There are a number of other fun categories too -- which you can see for yourself.

All in all, Hillary Clinton is definitely way ahead in New Hampshire.  She received a huge bounce in the week and a half since her announcement.  However, if you want to make the case for the most electable candidate, Barack Obama certainly bests Clinton.  He wins among independent voters.  He wins among people that supported Bush in 2004.  He wins among the few that did not vote in 2004.  If Democrats are looking for new voters, then their best candidate might be Obama.

As far as where each candidate needs to improve, most of this is straight-forward.  Edwards needs to court more youth voters, while Obama needs to go for the older ones.  Both Edwards and Obama should strive to win over female voters, otherwise they will not win one primary.

This is just one of many polls between now and next January that I will break down so all of us can have a clear idea how each candidate needs to improve.  Remember though, this is only New Hampshire.  Iowa and Nevada vote before that!

Comments

[Fred Farquat]

Obama has more medical marijuana supporters than non supporters. He should make that a wedge issue against Hillary because she has lots of medical marijuana supporters in her column yet she's not supporting that issue!!