In a span of just one week, the political players went from a fragile ceasefire agreement to all-out war. This weekend, as the Iraq army in Basra faltered, parts of Baghdad fell into the hands of militia leaders:
Iraq’s Prime Minister was staring into the abyss today after his operation to
crush militia strongholds in Basra stalled, members of his own security
forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia
militia gunmen.
With the threat of a civil war looming in the south, Nouri al-Maliki’s police
chief in Basra narrowly escaped assassination in the crucial port city,
while in Baghdad, the spokesman for the Iraqi side of the US military surge
was kidnapped by gunmen and his house burnt to the ground.
Saboteurs also blew up one of Iraq's two main oil pipelines from Basra,
cutting at least a third of the exports from the city which provides 80 per
cent of government revenue, a clear sign that the militias — who siphon
significant sums off the oil smuggling trade — would not stop at mere
insurrection.
The diplomatic agreement between Iraqi factions, not the US surge, was what led to the relatively peaceful winter there. Now that the ceasefire has been broken, the floodgates have re-opened and the violence is back. But this time can a deal be reached, or has Iraq already missed its diplomatic opportunity?
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