If people focus on the issues -- Iraq, jobs, education, health care -- then Obama wins. If voters get caught up on the fear-bating, race-bating and allow conservative spinsters to play off our insecurities, McCain wins.
Look at what has been happening in West Virginia as we draw closer to Tuesday's vote:
Like most people in Mingo County, West Virginia, Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican.
“I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an atheist,” said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.
Mr Simpson’s remarks help explain why Mr Obama is trailing Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival, by 40 percentage points ahead of Tuesday’s primary election in the heavily white and rural state, according to recent opinion polls.
It's the ultimate temptation for some: pay attention to what sounds intriguing or scandalous, and then believe it. Obama will have a lot of repair work to do between now and November 4th. As long as he convinces voters in swing states to vote on the issues, not fear, he wins.
