The Blue State

Obama's real challenge is correcting misinformation

If people focus on the issues -- Iraq, jobs, education, health care -- then Obama wins.  If voters get caught up on the fear-bating, race-bating and allow conservative spinsters to play off our insecurities, McCain wins.

Look at what has been happening in West Virginia as we draw closer to Tuesday's vote:

Like most people in Mingo County, West Virginia, Leonard Simpson is a lifelong Democrat. But given a choice between Barack Obama and John McCain in November, the 67-year-old retired coalminer would vote Republican.

“I heard that Obama is a Muslim and his wife’s an atheist,” said Mr Simpson, drawing on a cigarette outside the fire station in Williamson, a coalmining town of 3,400 people surrounded by lush wooded hillsides.

Mr Simpson’s remarks help explain why Mr Obama is trailing Hillary Clinton, his Democratic rival, by 40 percentage points ahead of Tuesday’s primary election in the heavily white and rural state, according to recent opinion polls.

It's the ultimate temptation for some: pay attention to what sounds intriguing or scandalous, and then believe it.  Obama will have a lot of repair work to do between now and November 4th.  As long as he convinces voters in swing states to vote on the issues, not fear, he wins.

Obama-McCain joint townhall meetings?

It's actually a possibility that this could happen, and could forever change the way presidential campaigning is done:

After a stop at a solar technology company in this central Oregon town, Obama was asked if he supported a suggestion that he campaign with McCain and hold joint town hall meetings in the run-up to the November general election.

"I think that's a great idea. Obviously we'd have to think through the logistics on this," Obama said. "Should I be the nominee, if I have the opportunity to debate substantive issues before the voters with John McCain , that's something I'm going to welcome."

More or less a suggestion that all this campaigning has made Obama more comfortable on the stump, and is confident that he has a greater grasp on policy than John McCain.

And as far as debates are concerned, Obama is looking 100% better than he did in 2007, when it showed during those early Democratic forums that he needed more practice.  The battles with Hillary Clinton helped prepare Obama for the general election.

Michelle lobbying against Hillary VP possibility

According to political insider Robert Novak, Michelle Obama, the possible future First Lady, does not want Hillary Clinton to be chosen as Barack's runningmate:

Close-in supporters of Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign are convinced he never will offer the vice presidential nomination to Sen. Hillary Clinton for one overriding reason: Michelle Obama.

The Democratic front-runner's wife did not comment on other rival candidates for the party's nomination, but she has been sniping at Clinton since last summer. According to Obama sources, those public utterances do not reveal the extent of her hostility.

We have known for quite some time that Michelle is not fond of the Clintons.  For example, the incident last January:

Post-Indiana Clinton fundraising numbers not good

Compare this to the $10 million she raised after she won Pennsylvania.  This is a sign that even her supporters have come to grips with the fact that she's done:

Clinton had been increasingly relying on Internet donations this spring from new and small-amount contributors; the day after she won the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, the campaign brought in a record $10 million online. But Hassan Nemazee, one of Clinton's national finance chairmen, put the amount she collected online in the 24 hours after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries at only "$1 million-plus."

Nonetheless, she presses on until at least early June.

Cindy McCain promises husband's campaign will play nice

She was not smart to say this -- because we know it will come back to bite her.  This was Cindy McCain on The Today Show this morning:

“Look, this is politics. We're going to go back and forth,” she said. “There are clear differences in this race between whatever candidates wind up against each other. That's the beauty of this race … What you're going to see is a great debate. Which is what the American public deserves. None of this negative stuff, though. You won't see it come out of our side at all.”

My guess is that this promise will be broken within the next 48 hours, if not sooner.

Clinton superdelegate asks for Obama's autograph

During a House vote, Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee, strode into the chambers and spoke to a number of superdelegates, including some that already backed Clinton.

The Hill:

“I wanted to see what's going on over here,” Obama, wearing a broad smile, told reporters. “I hear there's a lot of action on this side.”

He spoke to uncommitted superdelegates as well as supporters of his rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) He was also seen speaking to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who is neutral in the race. And he talked at length to Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), an uncommitted superdelegate.

The Democratic frontrunner spoke with Clinton supporters Reps. John Murtha (Pa.) and Bill Pascrell (N.J.), as well as Reps. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and John Spratt (S.C.), who are both uncommitted.

Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), a Clinton supporter, got Obama to sign a copy of today’s New York Daily News with the headline: “It’s His Party.”

Ouch!  Compare that to yesterday when many decided to stay on the sidelines after being asked by Hillary to meet with her.

To Obama supporters: Everything will be fine

The Democratic race for the presidency is coming to an end.  Over the next few days, a flood of super delegates are poised to go Obama's way.  At the moment, Obama needs just 180 delegates to reach the 2,025 mark, thus securing the nomination.  Sure, Hillary did say today that the nominee must actually get 2,210.  Even though that is technically incorrect, and yet another example of political positioning by the Clinton family, maybe the idea of her staying in the race could work to Obama's benefit.

West Virginia is scheduled to vote this next Tuesday, and Clinton will coast to an easy win there.  Just think, how would it look if Obama lost to someone who had already dropped out of the race?  How about Kentucky one week later?  She will win that too.  If she drops out and still wins those contests, the media will gossip, "He is the Democratic nominee and his own party is abandoning him."  It would make him look terrible.  So in the end, maybe Hillary should stay in until at least May 21st, the morning after Kentucky and Oregon voters head to the polls.  Or, Clinton could wait until after June 4th, meaning the Democrats would have campaigned in all 50 states before this thing was wrapped up.  By campaigning in every state, Obama and Clinton have helped register a record number of Democrats, thus helping the party locally in those areas.

The only thing we ask from Senator Clinton is for her to put her kitchen sink strategy to bed, and only focus on her vision for the country.  If she cares about the party, she cannot attack Obama as viciously as she has.  So stay in.  Help strike a deal so seat the delegates from Florida and Michigan at the convention.  Then bow out.

Obama is now the nominee.  Hillary put up a great fight.  If Hillary and her surrogates tone down their attacks a bit, we should even encourage them to stay in the race so that when she departments she does it in a way that brings the party together, positioning itself for the contest versus McCain this November.

Video: Gravel guest stars in latest Obamagirl video

Holy crap Mike Gravel is losing it -- if he hadn't already:

Just in case you forgot by now, this song was based off the Obamagirl video last year.

What a night in politics

Thankfully I only worked until 5 PM (Pacific time) so I didn't miss any of it.  This truly was one of the most exciting nights in politics I have ever experienced.  Going into Tuesday's contests, I thought Obama's victory in North Carolina would be about equal to that of Hillary Clinton's near-certain victory in Indiana -- at least six points on both fronts.  I was wrong.  Obama landed a comfortable victory in North Carolina, and brought us to the edge of our seats for the long, drawn out contest in Indiana.  Clinton pulled it out, barely.

By the end of the night, Obama went from being pushed against a fence to the certain nominee.  With Clinton about to get out of the race (fingers crossed on that one), Obama will be the target of GOP attacks from now until November.  If Hillary accomplished one good thing this race, it was that she helped get the Jeremiah Wright scandal out front and center now, as opposed to letting the Republicans do it just weeks before the election.

What a night.  And so a new race is about to begin -- again, assuming Clinton drops out.  Yes, assuming.

ELECTION NIGHT THREAD

Voters in North Carolina and Indiana have a stake in this race tonight.  Use this thread to weigh in as it unfolds, and comment with other Blue Staters.  Which candidate came out best?  And how long will this race last?

• UPDATE (11:59 PM ET): lol Anderson Cooper just called John King the "Rainman of politics."  Ouch.  Well, that ends this thread, since it is about to expire.  I'll post more updated on another thread.
• UPDATE (11:50 PM ET): Obama could win this.  Gary County is the only one remaining, and the margin is below 20,000 votes.
• UPDATE (11:13 PM ET): In North Carolina, Obama nets about 11 delegates, and in Indiana Hillary nets roughly four.  That means Obama made up what he lost in Pennsylvania.  This race is over.
• UPDATE (10:15 PM ET): It looks like Clinton will hold on.  She is now up by 41,000 votes, after being ahead only 38,000 about 20 minutes ago.  According to an NBC reporter, it is like "schizophrenia" inside the Hillary camp.
• UPDATE (10:07 PM ET): An interesting stat to note as we wait for the results in Indiana.  In South Bend, Obama leads by around 11 points.  That is strange.  It's a heavily populated Catholic area, which should have gone to Clinton.  Even though Notre Dame is there, it still was expected to be in the Clinton category.  And there's more to be counted there.
• UPDATE (9:59 PM ET): The voter ID law in Indiana might have hurt Clinton because, as Time Magazine writes on their web site, some senior citizens don't drive and therefore don't carry around photo ID.  12 nuns were turned away from a polling station in Indiana today.
• UPDATE (9:44 PM ET): It looks like the Obama people are saying they will come up roughly 15,000 to 10,000 votes short of catching Hillary in Indiana.  Either way, a big night for Obama.
• UPDATE (9:35 PM ET): In reaction to Obama's speech, one word: "WOW!"  And in Indiana, it's now 52% to 48%, Hillary slightly in the lead.
• UPDATE (9:31 PM ET): Obama is really going populist in his message.  He is talking about trust in the public, and taking the humble route of admitting that he is an imperfect candidate.
• UPDATE (9:12 PM ET): Obama is speaking!
• UPDATE (9:11 PM ET): Wow!  Hillary spinners are going to have a difficult time with this.
• UPDATE (8:58 PM ET): It's now down to six points in Indiana.  Though he will probably still lose, this is still pretty huge.  It ensures Obama will pick up more pledged delegates tonight, and erase almost all that Clinton gained in Pennsylvania.
• UPDATE (8:39 PM ET): While CBS has called Indiana for Clinton, and although she may indeed come out the winner there, it is getting closer.  Stay tuned.
• Update (8:30 PM ET): Obama is trouncing Hillary in North Carolina.  This is almost as bad for Clinton as the contest in Washington state.  If this keeps up, no matter if Hillary wins Indiana, many delegates are going to jump to Obama's side.