The Blue State

Video: John Edwards nearly reveals his endorsement

Earlier today on the MSNBC show Morning Joe, the commentators nearly got John Edwards to reveal who he voted for in the North Carolina primary:

What John and Elizabeth like and dislike about the two candidates

In an exclusive interview with People Magazine, John and Elizabeth Edwards revealed their true feelings about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:

In their first joint interview since John, the Democratic former senator and 2004 vice presidential nominee, dropped out of the race in January, the couple named what they liked and disliked about each of the remaining Democrats – and Mrs. Edwards didn't hesitate: "I like Hillary's health care plan."

What doesn't she like about the senator from New York and former first lady? "The lobbyist money," she adds.

On Obama, she says: "The fact that he has motivated so many young people to be involved, I think is fantastic."

But, she adds: "I don't like his health care plan or his advertising on health care, which I think is misleading."

Though, the two disagreed over whether it would be more symbolic to have an African-American or woman as president:

But he cited two things he likes about the charismatic young senator from Illinois: "One is, I think he really does want to bring about serious change and a different way of doing things. And secondly, I think it's a great symbolic thing to have an African-American who could be president."

Suddenly, Elizabeth jumped in:

At that, Mrs. Edwards rolled her eyes and, gripping the arms of her kitchen chair with some exaggeration, seemed about to lunge from her seat. "What about the great symbolic thing about a woman ..."

"It's important. It's important," her husband said. "I know it."

The full interview will be out on news stands this Friday.  In summary, the the couple will decline to endorse a candidate this primary season.  Had they stayed in the race all the way, it could have forced a brokered convention.

Edwards may endorse Hillary tomorrow

There's a rumor circulating the blogs today that, in a stunning announcement, John Edwards will endorse Hillary Clinton as soon as tomorrow.

If he does, Edwards will hurt his own political future, unless he truly believes that his endorsement will turn the tide and help Hillary win the nomination.

The polling fuss

I know this won't ease the nerves a bit.  But just over 24 hours from the caucus, I have no idea who will win Iowa.  If I lived in Vegas and had to put money on a candidate, I'd maybe pick Obama, only because of the new Des Moines Register poll, which puts him well ahead of Edwards and Clinton.  Why?  Unlike other polls, that one called cell phone users.  Normally most polling companies are a bit skewed because they only call landlines.  But the Des Moines Register phoned mobile users, many of which are younger and will support Obama.

However, there is another question.  Will Obama's younger movement show up?  One thing is helping Obama there.  His support isn't just college adults.  He also leads among the 30 to 55 age demographic.  When it comes to age 55 and older, Clinton leads among the women, and Edwards has a huge lead among men.  These numbers are true in just about any poll you look at.

Lastly, there is the second-choice option.  In each precinct, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the vote, they can either not have their vote count or choose a new candidate.  Among Richardson, Biden, Dodd and Kucinich supporters, Edwards has been polling very high as a second choice.  However, within the last 48 hours, Dennis Kucinich urged his supporters to vote for Obama if he fails to get beyond 15%.

Enough about polling.  Bring on the vote!

Another reason why Edwards could win

In Iowa, if a candidate receives less than 15% of the votes in a particular precinct, the voters in that precinct caucus must choose another candidate.  John Edwards is the second choice of most Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich and Biden supporters.  Here is one key finding from a new NBC poll released today:

Key finding: Mirroring other surveys, Edwards gets the most second-choice support. When Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich supporters are realigned, the poll has Edwards leading with 36%, followed by Obama and Clinton tied at 26%.

Wouldn't that be something?  The problem for Edwards is that he lacks a national campaign.  If Edwards wins, Obama must finish second, or else he will have trouble maintaining support in New Hampshire and South Carolina.  What Hillary would love more than anything is for this Democratic nomination process to be a shootout between herself and Edwards, as opposed to herself and Obama.

Five days til the big dance

It all starts this week.  After two new polls (one and two) this morning, it looks like not only is John Edwards in it, he actually could be the favorite to win.  He has campaigned in Iowa ever since 2003, and has extremely loyal supporters that he knows will caucus for him.  134,000 Democrats are expected to caucus this year.

Our coverage for caucus day will start at 7 PM ET/4 PM PT.  We will be on top of it until the end of the night when we have a winner.

One week until caucus

Brace yourselves everyone.  There are just seven days until the big day that we have waited about one year for.  Yes, it has been about one year until Barack Obama decided to run, which set off a chain reaction that forced Hillary to announce her candidacy a bit earlier than she had originally planned.

Yes, the writers at this site have been on a two-month vacation.  But now it's time to kick it up a few notches.  We will have wall-to-wall coverage of the Iowa contest next Thursday.  The first returns will come in during the early-evening hours, as each network will conduct entrance polls, which in my mind are absolutely meaningless because caucus-goers often change their minds during the debate and discussion period with their neighborhood precinct members.  It will be interesting though to measure the difference between the entrance polls and the actual vote, as it will show which supporters did a better job of persuading undecided voters.

Right before Christmas, a new American Research Group poll showed Hillary breaking away from the pack in Iowa, which is definitely worrisome.  However, due to the Christmas polling blackout, we won't know for a few days whether that poll was just an outlier.

Either way, I still think the race is tight.  Don't count out John Edwards either, who has visited all 99 counties and has a massively detailed ground game.  And will Obama's young supporters actually show up?  We will find out in one week!

IA-08: Latest polling blast

Here are two new polls.

Research 2000:

Barack Obama - 33%
Hillary Clinton - 24%
John Edwards - 24%
Bill Richardson - 9%

Hotline:

Hillary Clinton - 27%
Barack Obama - 27%
John Edwards - 22%
Bill Richardson - 8%

With still plenty of undecided voters remaining.

Daily Iowa Insider: Where we stand

After a brief trip up to Canada for the weekend to meet with the political science department at a graduate school, I am back and ready for the home stretch run that leads to the January 3rd Iowa Caucus.  A lot will be riding on that contest.  If Hillary wins, the momentum pushing her into New Hampshire as the odds-on inevitable nominee might be too overwhelming for Obama or Edwards to stop.  Of course, if Edwards wins Iowa, which could end up happening, Hillary might be just as excited.  Just as long as Obama finishes lower than first place in Iowa, she will be optimistic heading into New Hampshire and beyond.

As for Edwards, he actually could win Iowa.  Remember, this is not a primary.  It's not one person one vote.  Instead, each precinct, regardless of population, will receive the exact same amount of delegates.  Edwards, who has visited all 99 counties, has a respectable shot at pulling off the upset.  He has visited some of the most rural parts of Iowa, which have the exact same weight in terms of votes as precincts in Des Moines.  Anything can happen.

Over the last few days, I have grown less optimistic about Barack Obama's chances in Iowa.  Yes, I still consider him the slight favorite to win.  But I am less optimistic because I am getting a Howard Dean vibe from his campaign.  Like Dean, Obama is over-relying on younger voters, many of which never caucused before, and could even decide not to show up on the cold, wintery January 3rd evening.  Many of the college students will be back in their home towns, some in other states, and therefore would be unable to attend.  If the caucus were on the week of January 14th, therefore, I would say Obama would win by at least five percentage points.  But now that it has been moved up, the loyalists, especially those in rural counties, might give the advantage to Edwards.

It's still a toss-up.  The media is trying to make this a two-way race between Hillary and Obama.  As far as Iowa concerned, it isn't.  There are three contenders, all with an almost equal shot of winning.  These are crucial days between now and December 23rd, and then from the 27th leading up to the 3rd.  You can bet that there will be no Christmas for any candidate, as they try to grab the very last undecided Iowa voters and get them to commit to caucus.

The Blue State '08 endorsement nears

Yes, posts on this site have slowed a bit because I am literally working two other jobs at the moment that occupy about 50 hours of my time per week.  But as primary season heats up, we will escalate our coverage significantly.  This is the most important primary election in a generation because we are entertained with a fundamentally basic question: do we nominate someone from inside the Washington establishment, or do we look for a progressive voice from the outside who is capable of bringing about major change?

Clearly, on the inside we have people like Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson, who are continuing to take money from lobbyists.  Barack Obama and John Edwards, however, do not.  The latter two rely on individual donors to fund their campaigns.  It's a bottom-up mentality, which means Edwards and Obama will not be indebted to the forces in Washington.  Instead, they will be indebted to all the small donors that contributed a few dollars here and there to a cause that is much worth the fight.

Unfortunately, to the benefit of Hillary Clinton, both Edwards and Obama cancel each other out.  The Blue State is preparing to endorse a candidate, and is stuck on which of the two to support.  We would like your input on which of these two we should support, and why?